Trade and environmental protection are two things we can control
Responsible sale of fossil fuels is to our benefit
My mother used to tell me to only worry about the things I could change. There are things in this world which are going to change whether I approve, disapprove, or, as is often the case, have no opinion at all upon.
Recently, I was discussing the oil industry with a group of students and we collectively concluded oil was probably going to be a centrepiece of our economic lives for the foreseeable future, regardless of our personal dispositions.
The nature of worldwide demand is unlikely to change. However, that doesn't mean we cannot benefit from this future and, hopefully, maximize the opportunities that will undoubtedly exist.
As the world reaches, as many analysts believe, peak oil, we are driven to extract it in places that are increasingly more dangerous, difficult and expensive. Frequently, all of these conditions are present. This places an extra burden on all of us, as caretakers of this planet, to be diligent in our husbandry of this valuable resource.
This is why I feel strongly that this country, our country, should seek every opportunity to take advantage of the natural gifts we have been given, but in a responsible way. I have been following the developments of one of these opportunities, the Northern Gateway pipeline, for some time.
I feel this is one opportunity we can take advantage of, and control, to our collective advantage. If built, Northern Gateway will bestow economic benefits on all Canadians with manageable, minimal risk to the lands it will cross. It will enable us to sell oil to the world rather than to one customer. It will provide us with leverage at the bargaining table, thousands of temporary and permanent jobs, and a lasting infrastructure we can exploit for decades.
Canada is a trading nation. Our lifestyle, which is the envy of many in the world, was forged by opening our borders to ideas, people, and industry. By trading our commodities, value-added products and ideas with our trading partners, we created an economy which belies our small numbers.
The Northern Gateway project is one of those ideas that will open our fuel market to Asia, the world's largest potential customer and a market Canadian business people and their politicians are anxious to develop.
We have a chance to participate in this burgeoning eastern economy or to sit on the sidelines and watch others reap the substantial benefits. I would therefore exhort all stakeholders - government (federal and provincial), business people across the country, opinion leaders, reasonable environmental stakeholders and native communities - to embrace this project and let their voices be heard.
This project is in the gestational stage and affords ample opportunity for all interested parties to have an impact on the eventual outcome. Some may say their disapproval of such a project stems from a desire to see development of alternative sustainable energy choices such as wind, solar, tidal and geothermal.
Like many, I look forward to the day when we can operate this planet relying only on green energy. However, as long as we are reliant on fossil fuels, it is in our continuing interest to do so in a responsible and financially beneficial manner.
The ideas, funds and technology arising from development of our current resources will, if we are wise, finance the development of future energy choices. A long-term strategic approach to our national energy future is the best guarantee of economic stability for all of us.
I believe the Northern Gateway is an essential component of this strategic future. It is indeed something we can control for our mutual and enduring benefit.
Professor Robert Deane teaches business at King's University College, Western University, in London, Ont.
How big is Canada’s oil subsidy to the U.S.?
Published Monday, Jan. 07, 2013 06:54AM EST
Last updated Monday, Jan. 07, 2013 07:18PM EST
Consider the tale of Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., two of the largest oil sands producers in Alberta. Outwardly, they may appear quite similar. Each produces hundreds of thousands of barrels a day from the oil sands. And most of that oil eventually ends up in the same place–gas tanks across the continent. The path it takes to get there, however, is another story. The difference is a microcosm of the predicament Canada’s energy industry currently faces.
Over the last few years, Suncor’s emphasis has shifted from exponential production growth to milking the full value of what it digs out of the ground. Fortunately for Suncor, it processes nearly all of the bitumen it pulls from the oil sands in its own refineries.
On the other hand, CNRL, like most oil sands producers, exports raw bitumen to the United States. In so doing, however, the company also transfers an enormous amount of wealth from its Canadian operations to American refiners in the Midwest.
In the refining business, the difference between what a refinery pays for its inputs (like crude or bitumen) and the price it gets for finished products (like gasoline or diesel) is known as a crack spread. The glut of oil coming from Canadian producers means Midwest refineries are enjoying crack spreads up to five times larger than those seen by American coastal refineries, which pay world prices for their feedstock.
Investors have certainly noticed what such large crack spreads mean for the bottom line. CNRL, which lacks its own refineries, is forced to sell its raw product at a heavy discount, thereby missing out on those juicy refining margins. Suncor, on the other hand, is able to capture the huge crack spreads through its downstream refining operations. In 2012, CNRL’s stock fell more than 20 per cent, while Suncor’s gained more than 10 per cent.
The issue is writ large in the price differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude. Although WTI is often quoted in North America as the price of oil, Brent is actually the global benchmark for crude. Unfortunately for Canadian producers, lately the spot price of Brent has been as much as $25 a barrel higher than that of WTI.
While Canadian oil sands producers are the main victims of this price gap, they’re also, somewhat ironically, its principal cause. Without more pipeline infrastructure to offload oil to other markets, oil sands crude, as well as shale oil from the Bakken play in North Dakota, has no where else to go. More production from these places only boosts supply, further lowering the price of WTI.
Aside from a few hundred thousand barrels a day from wells offshore Newfoundland that get Brent prices, virtually all of Canada’s 2.4 million barrels a day are priced off WTI.
An even bigger concern for Canadian oil producers than the discount between WTI and Brent is the price differential between WTI and Western Canadian Select–the benchmark price for western Canadian oil exports to the U.S. It’s trading around $60 a barrel, a third less than WTI and 45 per cent lower than Brent.
Do the math on some 2 million barrels a day of heavily discounted oil exports and suddenly you’re talking about an enormous wealth transfer from Canadian oil producers to American refineries. (Note, the subsidy is pocketed by U.S. refiners, not motorists, who don’t see the Canadian discount when filling up at the pumps.) What if Canadian oil was getting world prices? At the current Brent-Western Canadian Select spread of roughly $50 a barrel, you’re in the neighbourhood of $100-million a day. That equates to foregone revenues of more than $35-billion over the course of a year.
It’s not just shareholders of companies like CNRL who are getting squeezed by this wealth transfer. The Alberta government loses royalties, while Ottawa (and the rest of Canada by extension) misses out on cash from corporate income taxes.
The rest of the oil sands industry may need to take a page from Suncor’s playbook. Before rushing ahead to double oil sands production to 3 million barrels a day–and sending billions more in de facto energy subsidies to U.S. refiners–investors and the Canadian economy may be better off if producers figure out how to capture more value from what they’re already digging out of the ground.
Jeff Rubin is the former chief economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of the award-winning Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller. His recent best seller is The End of Growth .
Over the last few years, Suncor’s emphasis has shifted from exponential production growth to milking the full value of what it digs out of the ground. Fortunately for Suncor, it processes nearly all of the bitumen it pulls from the oil sands in its own refineries.
On the other hand, CNRL, like most oil sands producers, exports raw bitumen to the United States. In so doing, however, the company also transfers an enormous amount of wealth from its Canadian operations to American refiners in the Midwest.
In the refining business, the difference between what a refinery pays for its inputs (like crude or bitumen) and the price it gets for finished products (like gasoline or diesel) is known as a crack spread. The glut of oil coming from Canadian producers means Midwest refineries are enjoying crack spreads up to five times larger than those seen by American coastal refineries, which pay world prices for their feedstock.
Investors have certainly noticed what such large crack spreads mean for the bottom line. CNRL, which lacks its own refineries, is forced to sell its raw product at a heavy discount, thereby missing out on those juicy refining margins. Suncor, on the other hand, is able to capture the huge crack spreads through its downstream refining operations. In 2012, CNRL’s stock fell more than 20 per cent, while Suncor’s gained more than 10 per cent.
The issue is writ large in the price differential between West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude. Although WTI is often quoted in North America as the price of oil, Brent is actually the global benchmark for crude. Unfortunately for Canadian producers, lately the spot price of Brent has been as much as $25 a barrel higher than that of WTI.
While Canadian oil sands producers are the main victims of this price gap, they’re also, somewhat ironically, its principal cause. Without more pipeline infrastructure to offload oil to other markets, oil sands crude, as well as shale oil from the Bakken play in North Dakota, has no where else to go. More production from these places only boosts supply, further lowering the price of WTI.
Aside from a few hundred thousand barrels a day from wells offshore Newfoundland that get Brent prices, virtually all of Canada’s 2.4 million barrels a day are priced off WTI.
An even bigger concern for Canadian oil producers than the discount between WTI and Brent is the price differential between WTI and Western Canadian Select–the benchmark price for western Canadian oil exports to the U.S. It’s trading around $60 a barrel, a third less than WTI and 45 per cent lower than Brent.
Do the math on some 2 million barrels a day of heavily discounted oil exports and suddenly you’re talking about an enormous wealth transfer from Canadian oil producers to American refineries. (Note, the subsidy is pocketed by U.S. refiners, not motorists, who don’t see the Canadian discount when filling up at the pumps.) What if Canadian oil was getting world prices? At the current Brent-Western Canadian Select spread of roughly $50 a barrel, you’re in the neighbourhood of $100-million a day. That equates to foregone revenues of more than $35-billion over the course of a year.
It’s not just shareholders of companies like CNRL who are getting squeezed by this wealth transfer. The Alberta government loses royalties, while Ottawa (and the rest of Canada by extension) misses out on cash from corporate income taxes.
The rest of the oil sands industry may need to take a page from Suncor’s playbook. Before rushing ahead to double oil sands production to 3 million barrels a day–and sending billions more in de facto energy subsidies to U.S. refiners–investors and the Canadian economy may be better off if producers figure out how to capture more value from what they’re already digging out of the ground.
Jeff Rubin is the former chief economist of CIBC World Markets and the author of the award-winning Why Your World Is About To Get A Whole Lot Smaller. His recent best seller is The End of Growth .
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